Rising interest rates are likely to put some upward pressure on cap rates in 2022. However, the rise will be modest compared to the increase in the benchmark 91-day Treasury that has already increased by 1.3 percentage points as of the end of April from one year ago (2.7% as of April 26). This is because other factors are creating upward pressure on commercial real estate prices.
The apartment market is likely to benefit from the higher mortgage rates due to increased demand for rental units. Reduced consumer spending will tend to lower the demand for industrial space but increased demand for warehouse space to minimize supply disruptions (just-in-case inventory management) could boost absorption.
Inflation will hit consumer spending but retail stores providing essential services like the neighborhood centers will do better than retail stores providing non-essential services like high-end shopping malls.
The continuing return to the office will also tend to minimize the decline in demand due to slower business formation.
Photo by Jose Francisco Fernandez Saura